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The role of public policies in reducing smoking and deaths caused by smoking in Vietnam: results from the Vietnam tobacco policy simulation model.

Levy DT, Bales S, Lam NT, Nikolayev L

University of Baltimore, Pacific Institute, USA. levy@pire.org

A simulation model is developed for Vietnam to project smoking prevalence and associated premature mortality. The model examines independently and as a package the effects of five types of tobacco control policies: tax increases, clean air laws, mass media campaigns, advertising bans, and youth access policies. Predictions suggest that the largest reductions in smoking rates will result from implementing a comprehensive tobacco control policy package. Significant inroads may be achieved through tax increases. A media campaign along with programs to publicize and enforce clean air laws, advertising bans and youth access laws would further reduce smoking rates. Tobacco control policies have the potential to make large dents in smoking rates, which in turn could lead to many lives saved. In the absence of these measures, deaths from smoking will increase. The model also helps to identify information gaps pertinent both to modeling and policy-making.

Published 20 February 2006 in Soc Sci Med, 62(7): 1819-30.
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