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Prospective predictors of long-term abstinence versus relapse among smokers who quit as young adults.

Macy JT, Seo DC, Chassin L, Presson CC, Sherman SJ

Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN 47405, USA. jtmacy@indiana.edu

OBJECTIVES: We sought to identify prospective predictors of long-term abstinence versus relapse among individuals who quit smoking as young adults. METHODS: Participants from an ongoing longitudinal study of smoking who had quit for at least 1 year between the ages of 18 and 24 years (n=327) were divided into those who later reported not smoking for more than 5 years (long-term abstinence) or reported current smoking, defined as smoking at least monthly (relapse). Logistic regression was used to examine odds ratios (ORs) of prospective predictors of long-term abstinence versus relapse. RESULTS: Overall, 67% of participants maintained long-term abstinence and 33% relapsed. The strongest predictor of avoiding relapse was marrying a nonsmoker (adjusted OR [AOR]=0.07; 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.03, 0.21). Other predictors included making 1 lifetime quit attempt (AOR=0.13; 95% CI=0.04, 0.44), having as a young adult only 1 parent who smoked (AOR=0.23; 95% CI=0.06, 0.93), and working in a completely smoke-free building (AOR=0.13; 95% CI=0.03, 0.58). CONCLUSIONS: The factors related to smoking in the social environment played the largest role in predicting long-term abstinence versus relapse.

Published 24 July 2007 in Am J Public Health, 97(8): 1470-5.
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